- cross-posted to:
- technology@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- technology@beehaw.org
The bond market’s assessment also jibes with SpaceX’s stock. It’s a profitless, non-dividend-paying, one-person-controlled, empire-building project trading at more than 100 times sales, about 30 times the valuation of the S&P 500 Index. That’s the very definition of a junk stock.
Original link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-02/spacex-is-junk-that-s-what-the-bond-market-says
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Once again, the IPO ($135/share or $2.1 Trillion) was based on the success of some long term goals like space-based data centers and a Mars colony of one million permanent residents.
This is from the same guy who promised a fleet of Tesla robotaxis by 2025.
Space experts have since pointed out that the vacuum of space does not sink heat.
Some of the assets thrown into the SpaceX valuation include xAI (which is falling behind OpenAI and Anthropic) and Starlink (which is suffering from congestion problems already and cannot be scaled up).
So this is not unexpected.
Space experts have since pointed out that the vacuum of space does not sink heat.
I’m merely a casual Elite: Dangerous player and I could have told him that.
He’s a genius btw
I still want to know how having anyone on mars was supposed to be profitable.
Unless a government is paying you to run a private prison there.
The point of manned missions and colonies now is proof of concept for the expansion of human civilization to other worlds, but yes, that’s not a private for profit endeavor but a public interest one.
That said, the research and development done for the Apollo moon shots returned to the economy $14 for every one dollar spent, so it was absolutely a sound investment. Also, those patents were sold to the US government for a dollar each (at most), and so the technology gained like microcircuitry and memory foam, are public domain.
( RANT: The public domain, the creation of a robust one is – according to the Constitution of the United States – the very purpose of the whole temporary monopoly system that is the foundation of intellectual property law.)
GrokAI is a poison pill that has been fed into a healthy rocket-satellite company. Sucks for the folks who value practical infrastructure that contributes to society.
I feel like I’m way ahead of the market.
(If only I knew how to turn that wisdom into money)
Alas, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I’m convinced that to win in today’s market, you really can’t think deeply about anything.
Hm. Maybe you can’t. How does that help me?
See, you’re still thinking when you ask questions
The one you hear a lot is buying physical precious metals. But keeping that stuff at home is kinda risky and renting a vault isn’t free either.
There are certificates that are fully backed by physical metals, so it is easy to trade them. I even have some (but going to sell soon).
You want it at home. The real value in your of gold is when society collapses it still is a nice metal and so has value. Iron would work to but your house isn’t big enough for your life savings in iron.
I don’t think society will collapse and lacking that scenario gold isn’t a better investment.
You want it at home.
Well, I don’t.
I don’t think society will collapse and lacking that scenario gold isn’t a better investment.
I don’t think that either. I buy it when I think it’s value will rise.
Put options are a thing.
But best to stay out of stocks gambling unless you have money to lose.
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Prior to the IPO, I was absolutely interested in SpaceX stock. Regardless of Musk’s antics, they are far and away the most advanced and most successful space launch company in the world.
Where traditional space launch companies like Boeing and ULA are floundering and failing, SpaceX was getting it done, to the point where NASA and the US Military had to move flights originally booked with ULA and hand them to SpaceX because they were the only ones able to get things done on schedule AND is more profitable than any other rocket company thanks to landing and reuse technology.
Then, of course Musk merged Twitter into xAI, merged xAI into SpaceX, then basically called SpaceX an AI company to attract more AI investment hype, and 99% of the stock value is AI hype.
And I have zero interest in SpaceX stock any more.
I’m in the same boat. For years I’d been excited to potentially own some SpaceX shares if they went public. No interest at all now due to xAI merger. I did gamble a bit of money on day 1 just because the odds of a pop were real, but i just got in and out and I was done.
, they are far and away the most advanced and most successful space launch company in the world.
For orbital launches, maybe, but they have all kinds of competition now. Would they even be in business if not for huge government contracts without milestones?
They dont have any competition at the scale of what falcon 9 can do yet. Blue Origin is getting close, but they’re not quite there yet.
People are transferring contracts to falcon 9 because it works and is available.
If Starship succeeds, they’ll be leap frogging everything being built now thats meant to compete with Falcon 9.
It’s all pump and dump bullshit… You can’t have a 2T value when the most the company has made in a year is 19B.
I read somewhere that, if reusable rockets were all ok today, spacex needs some 450 launched just to get back to zero compared to Ariane 6 because of the massive costs.
So yeah “reusable” (I would like to know how reusable they actually are/how much they cost to reuse) is great and all but not yet economically viable it seems.
But but … you can hear people cheering maniacally every time one of their rockets comes back to land! It must be a legit company.
Well, from a technical standpoint they now routinely do weekly what was never ever done before by anyone. Both in launch cadence of their booster fleet and the recovery of them, and they’ve pretty much fully transitioned to only making their Stage 2’s and just using their existing fleet of boosters. So from a rocket company perspective, SpaceX is a legitimate company, and they’ve made legitimate advances in the field of rocketry, and now they outpace the rest of the global market combined in tons to orbit.
Then you fold in Starlink, which needs those weekly launches to maintain the constellation… and then you fold in Starship, which is the next generation launch platform, and it’s like “Ok… that’s still rocket-y, that’s cool”.
And then along comes xAI tacked onto the side like a 100 billion dollar dead weight and that is where things get a bit wobbly.
The Bond market is even more junk. SpaceX is doing at least something, while the bond market is just moving money from one pocket to another without producing anything at all.
Thats like saying water isn’t useful because it can’t pick up a hammer.
The bond market provides the liquidity to allow companies to take on debt in order to fund their operations, matching it to buyers willing to lend out the money. It is the thing that enables companies to produce anything to begin with. And It is not only vital to the private sector, but is the primary method for how the us government funds its budget.
SpaceX wouldn’t exist without the bond market, because the entire company is built on government handouts (designed to outsource everything to private companies for the benefit of the wealthy capital owning class) which were funded through government issued bonds that raised the capital to give to spacex for contracts.
Facefuckingpalm. Ok, whatever.
Ew, knowledge! Get it off me!
^ this is you
